29 Apr 2011 12:46 AM
you predicted 'parity within 2 years' on 9/7/09, I have just heard the news of the AUD v usD being at an all time high and also the rate against the |
29 Apr 2011 12:11 PM
|Some of the drivers for a lower dollar are:
Other foreign economies picking up and interest rates rising overseas or falling here (unlikely in the mid term for the latter at least).
A war or other major disaster in the wrong place (not that there is a right place) - though the Aussie shrugged off the Queensland floods with barely a breather.
Anything to do with China deciding that it doesnt need Aussie resources, they own the economy.
I remember Jims statement that it would hit parity with the pound, thinking it was pretty bold. Even now, but the way things are going we are in uncharted waters and while finance experts are predicting a big correction in the overvalued AUD, they have been predicting that for ages.
The Chinese demand for our minerals is the reason Australia avoided debt and the GFC, it had very little to do with clever banking practices or clever political decisions as some not especially clever but lucky folks would have us believe.
The following make good reading for anyone interested.
I liked a quote in the second article that 'A French economist in the 60s once said that Australia is like an idiot who keeps winning the lottery'. This still rings true, with the short vision and compromise and please no-one decisions being made by a weak government being bullied (/paid off?!) by the folks making their stupidly excessive profits in the resources sector.
I wonder what the French dude would say if he were around now about the UK, US and Europe chucking it all down the toilet even though the warnings were there for years.
Jesus, I think I need to go for a surf and drink some beer. What am I turning into?
29 Apr 2011 10:33 PM
|I was half right with the parity thing (though there are still a few months left).
Next prediction, WWIII within 10 years.
(I hope I am wrong)
29 Apr 2011 11:53 PM
Blimey, when I turned up with Roger last year to do your roof I should have got some advice. Cheers
30 Apr 2011 1:00 AM
|I have had a very dull few days at work with the Easter holidays shutting any meaningful jobs off, so have had plenty of time to bugger about on the net and figure out global economics (without any conclusion of course).
Glad to see alls going ok, you got a football game yet?
30 Apr 2011 1:05 AM
yes, still up at the Arena, changed teams. Are you still considering going home?
30 Apr 2011 1:07 AM
|Always a consideration! Pmd you!|
30 Apr 2011 1:23 AM
|Hey Jim, If parity happens in 5 years I will eat a plate of witchity grubs. Apparently they taste ok, I cant remember. By that time though they will cost considerably more than 2 pub meals and a 2 pints back in England if they dont already.